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| #46523 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:14 AM 17.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...AS 40 KT WINDS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD RAIN CONTAMINATION PROBLEMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND HOW MUCH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REFORMED DURING THE NIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER EAST GFDL AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE MORE WESTERLY BAM MODELS AND LBAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...AND THIS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER THE POSITION AND MOTION OF THE CYCLONE ARE BETTER ESTABLISHED. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 13.0N 55.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W 95 KT |
