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| #467885 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 23.Oct.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 81.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
