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| #467995 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:38 PM 23.Oct.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 82.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUAN BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA BUOY IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN |
