|
Show Selection: |
| #46829 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 18.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 83 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE PLANE SUBSEQUENTLY CLIMBED TO 700 MB BECAUSE OF TURBULENCE IN THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 988 MB IN THE EYE BY DROPWINDSONDE. THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS OF 17 KT...SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER. USING THE 80 PER CENT FACTOR TO ESIMATE SURFACE WINDS FROM 850 MB...CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. PHILIPPE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...ON THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AS PHILIPPE ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF ABOUT 23N. BASED ON THE LATEST RECON FIXES...THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7... ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTHWARD. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD PATH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.5N 55.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 56.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.6N 57.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 58.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.8N 58.8W 85 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 60.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 29.0N 60.5W 95 KT |
