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| #468320 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 25.Oct.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 ...RINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 83.9W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
