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| #46862 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 AM 19.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT. ALTHOUGH RECON REPORTED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AN EYE HAS NOT YET BEEN EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES. CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW OVER MOST SECTORS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEG C...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS OUTPUT THROUGH 96 HOURS AND A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5. BASED ON EARLIER RECON FIXES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH AND A LITTLE SLOWER...350/6. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60-65W WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING REGIME IS CONSISTENT WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE....AND SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.1N 56.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 56.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 57.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 58.4W 85 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 60.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 29.5N 60.0W 90 KT |
