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| #468620 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 26.Oct.2011) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011 THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS DATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH JUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY THE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN RINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. RINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN. THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.5N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.2N 86.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.4N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
