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| #468858 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 27.Oct.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011 RINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH LAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A MEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION. FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO THIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 20.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z 19.5N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 18.0N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
