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| #468963 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 28.Oct.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011 STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PASSAGE OVER LAND HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON RINA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND...BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM CANCUN MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND A SECOND LOW-LEVEL VORITICTY MAXIMUM HAS FORMED ABOUT 90 N MI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A 30-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/5. RINA IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN RINA SOUTHWARD IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD TURN THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND NEAR THEM AFTER THAT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THUS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DENEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF RINA TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 120 HOURS...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 21.8N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 22.1N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 22.1N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.4N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 20.6N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 19.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
