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| #47030 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 PM 19.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...BASED ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 70 KT. SOME VERTICAL SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED ON THE HURRICANE DUE TO A SWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE OUTFLOW OF RITA...NEAR AND NORTH OF 20N. HOWEVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...330/5. TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60W. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.3N 56.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.2N 58.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 28.5N 59.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 37.0N 53.0W 70 KT |
