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| #47033 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 19.Sep.2005) TCMAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 56.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 56.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.2N 58.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 37.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH |
