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| #471588 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:41 PM 09.Nov.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011 1000 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011 RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF SEAN HAS LEVELED OFF THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER HAVE WARMED...ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE U.S. NAVY FNMOC TC WEBPAGE STILL SHOWS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOME INNER CORE STRUCTURE...SEAN STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AT 24 HOURS...SHOWING SEAN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER THAT TIME...SEAN SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. SEAN HAS JOGGED QUICKLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. SEAN SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT TIME ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 29.5N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 30.3N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 34.5N 64.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 38.5N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
