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| #471702 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:35 AM 10.Nov.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011 1000 AM EST THU NOV 10 2011 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH SEAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE...WITH A MORE COMPACT APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE THAN YESTERDAY. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 1800 UTC TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL WINDS. SEAN STILL HAS A DAY OR SO OF MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE SHEAR LEFT TO INTENSIFY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD NOTABLY INCREASE AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. SEAN COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST. THE STORM HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVING ABOUT 035/6. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK CONTINUING WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING THE CYCLONE PASSING A FAIR DISTANCE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH SEAN BECOMING ABSORBED BY THAT FRONT WITHIN 48 HOURS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SEAN DISSIPATED A LITTLE FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 30.4N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 31.8N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 34.7N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 39.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
