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| #471765 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:38 PM 10.Nov.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011 500 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE APPEARING TO WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SEAN FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KT...SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF 52 KT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 55 KT. THE CHANCES OF SEAN BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE DEGRADED STRUCTURE. SINCE THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. BY TOMORROW...WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND THIS IS ALREADY BEING HERALDED BY THE ERODING CIRRUS OVERFLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE... AND IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SEAN IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 11 KT...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY IT MIGHT BE WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT ESTIMATE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AS SEAN PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS BE NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. IN A DAY OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE SEAN AND ABSORB THE SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW SEAN DISSIPATED AS EARLY AS 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 30.9N 69.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 32.5N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 36.1N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
