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| #47181 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 20.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 RITA HAS BECOME THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. DATA FROM DOPPLER RADAR FROM KEY WEST...SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. DOPPLER RADAR PEAK WINDS AT 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 90 AND 95 KNOTS WITH AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 100 KNOTS...AND DROPSONDES IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 982 MB...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE OCEAN BELOW RITA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS THE WINDS UP BUT...IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. RITA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO GO UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS SINCE IT IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE RITA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ONE THE CASES OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW JUST THE SKINNY BLACK LINE...IT IS ALWAYS GOOD TO REMIND THEM THAT 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE LARGE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 23.8N 81.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND |
