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| #47277 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 20.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PHILIPPE IS MUCH EASIER TO FIND THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE CENTER IS EXPOSED JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE POOR SATELLITE APPEARENCE...PHILIPPE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. AGAIN THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL SURVIVE THE CURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR AND REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS CLOSELY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 120 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR. IT SEEMS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE UPPER LOW TOO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...SO THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MIGHT NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS SOON AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY BY ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE A LITTLE...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL STORM TO SLOWLY RESTRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE ONCE AND FOR ALL. FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.8N 57.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.8N 58.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 59.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 59.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 32.0N 60.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 37.5N 54.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
