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| #4746 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 13.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004 AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE THAT CHARLEY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/16. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MOTION ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AFTER WHICH CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY IS FOR WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST AS CHARLEY GOES BY AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ALERT TO THIS POSSIBILITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE AT ABOUT 12Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 95 KTS. A CLOSED 10-MILE DIAMETER EYEWALL PERSISTS AND THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED 5 MB TO 965 MB DURING THE PAST TWO HOURS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THEREAFTER THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE STRONG WINDS EXPANDING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 25.2N 82.8W 95 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 27.7N 82.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 31.4N 81.5W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 15/0000Z 35.8N 79.2W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 15/1200Z 40.2N 76.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 16/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROOPCAL LOW |
