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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#47478 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 21.Sep.2005)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z WED SEP 21 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.5N 87.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 92.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.6N 94.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 32.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 35.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA