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| #47702 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 22.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 DETERMINING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS MORNING. THE CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND SATELLITE REPRESENTATION SHOWS THE OVERALL SYSTEM OBTAINING SUBTROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS RATHER QUICKLY. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE ARE 2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB AND 1.5...25 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON A FEW POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/15. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PHILIPPE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE PHILIPPE/EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE UKMET MODEL ACCELERATES THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN THREE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A WEAKENING SLOW DECAY WITH LITTLE NORTHEAST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...ABSORBING PHILIPPE INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. UNLESS THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF PHILIPPE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PHILIPPE TO REGAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IF THE GFS SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.2N 57.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 28.2N 57.6W 35 KT...ABSORBED 24HR VT 23/1200Z 30.6N 58.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/0000Z 32.6N 58.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1200Z 36.5N 51.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1200Z 38.5N 45.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1200Z 40.0N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
