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| #47708 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 22.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 25.4N 88.7W 145 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W 140 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W 130 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 100 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND |
