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| #47782 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 22.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 RITA IS GOING TROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 913 MB...WHICH IS A VERY LOW PRESSURE TO HAVE ONLY 125 KNOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...RITA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT RITA COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 25.8N 89.5W 125 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 90.7W 125 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 27.8N 92.4W 125 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.8W 120 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 94.5W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND |
