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| #47886 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 23.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 RITA IS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THIS MORNING...AS THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE INNER 15 N MI WIDE EYE HAD DISSIPATED AND A SINGLE 33 N MI WIDE EYE EXISTED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ARE 125-130 KT...WHICH HELPS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED THAT ANOTHER WIND MAXIMA HAS FORMED ABOUT 60 N MI FROM THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT BE THE START OF ANOTHER OUTER EYEWALL. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB. RITA IS MOVING BETWEEN 300-305 DEGREES AT 8-9 KT. RAWINSONDE DATA AT 00Z INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT OVER TEXAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW CLUSTERED ABOUT A LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ROUGHLY 30 HR...WITH THE MODEL TRACK BEING SPREAD BETWEEN SAN LUIS PASS AND SABINE PASS. THE FORECAST TRACK UP TO LANDFALL IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE GUIDANCE BECOME VERY DIVERGENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF RITA. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HR JUST AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID. THIS STALLING WILL POSE A SERIOUS RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. SINCE RITA HAS COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HR. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY... POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS COULD HAPPEN IF THE SHEAR REACHES THE 25 KT VALUES FORECAST BY THE GFS AND SHIPS MODELS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 26.8N 91.0W 120 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 27.6N 92.2W 125 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 28.9N 93.6W 120 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 30.4N 94.6W 80 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING |
