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| #47889 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 AM 23.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 AFTER COMING OUT OF THE DREADED SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD... NIGHT TIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE PHILIPPE MADE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES... AND ACCELERATED UP TO 20-22 KT. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE HAS TURNED MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT A SLOWER SPEED...BUT TOWARD BERMUDA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB. AFWA CAME IN WITH A 45-KT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING THE CENTER OF THE LARGE LOW MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME 30-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/16. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA... AND GRADUALLY DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE COULD GET SHEARED OUT AND ABSORBED INTO THE SUBTROPICAL LOW... OR REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY AND ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE LOW AND SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY AN APPPOACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS THE ONE CHOSEN AND INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...WHETHER PHILIPPE EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED TO THE SOUTH OR RECURVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST... THE CENTER AND SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS MAY GET UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH SUCH STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 40-60 KT FORECAST EXPECTED TO AFFECT PHILIPPE WITHIN 36 HOURS... IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE UP TO 58 KT IN 60 HOURS... IN THE FACE OF 58 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 30.5N 60.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 32.0N 61.2W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0600Z 33.7N 61.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1800Z 35.1N 59.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0600Z 37.4N 54.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
