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| #48061 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 23.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS USUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR THESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FOREAST TO COLLAPSE AND A WEAKENED RITA COULD MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 28.2N 92.6W 110 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.7W 105 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 30.8N 94.5W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND |
