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| #4877 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 13.Aug.2004) TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042004 2100Z FRI AUG 13 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.0W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.0W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.8N 25.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N 28.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 30.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.2N 34.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 24.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART |
