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| #49365 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 01.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. MOST OF THE`CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH QUITE STRONG...IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN SUCH A SHEARED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF THE SHEAR RELAXES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREAFTER...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PREVENTING FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE PRESENT RELOCATION USING THE MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT REFLECT A NORTHWARD MOTION...IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST FASTER...CONSEQUENTLY THEY BRING THE DEPRESSION FATHER WEST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACK ENVELOPE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.3N 34.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 34.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 35.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.0N 35.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 25.0N 37.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 37.0W 40 KT |
