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| #49406 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 01.Oct.2005) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...TWENTIETH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO ASSESS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
