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| #49417 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:20 AM 01.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A 01/0822 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN SUSPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... AND 25 FROM AFWA. HOWEVER... DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE MADE... AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/06. OTHER THAN THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-20 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW... COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH ... IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER 26-28C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40 KT BY 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 14.1N 33.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT |
