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| #49486 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 01.Oct.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY STILL OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
