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| #49488 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 01.Oct.2005) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 87.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 87.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.3N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.8N 92.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 87.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
