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| #49532 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:20 AM 02.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. SOME DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER... BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH DEPTH AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z REMAINED 30 KT... AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS 33 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS... AND THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS... BUT PROBABLY JUST BARELY IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL. THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY GET STRONGER AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR GFS AGREES ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 72 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT NOT VERY QUICKLY DUE TO LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 16.0N 34.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.2N 35.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 18.9N 36.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 36.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 22.3N 36.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 25.5N 36.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 34.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 31.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
