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| #49567 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:25 AM 02.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WELL TO THE WEST OF DECAYING CONVECTION. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR...THERE SEEMS LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS AN UNEXPECTED REGENERATION OCCURS. NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WITH THE LOW LAYER FLOW...AT 315/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GFS HAD BEEN ALONE IN FORECASTING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF A DECAYING SYSTEM AND AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN IT RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 17.0N 35.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 38.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
