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| #49615 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 02.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS OUT... RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST... THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD SLOW AS STAN NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WITH THIS SLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE CIRCULATION ALOFT NEAR LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET GUIDANCE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL SHIP REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TO BE SAFE I WILL PRESUME THAT SUCH WINDS STILL EXIST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER...WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN...HENCE THE LOWERING OF THE WARNINGS. ONCE IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN... WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.7N 89.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 21.1N 90.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 21.3N 93.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.1N 94.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 96.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.5N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
