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| #49747 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 03.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z. IN THE MEANTIME...THE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A STATION ON CAYOS ARCAS VERY NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 997 MB. BECAUSE THE OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT FOUND VERY LITTLE WIND NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 40 KT AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN ANY EVENT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH LIGHT SHEAR... GOOD OUTFLOW...AND WARM WATER. I ASSUME THE WIND FIELD IS IN THE PROCESS OF CONTRACTING IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND ONCE THIS OCCURS A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC...AND THIS COULD BE DUE TO ISSUES...EITHER REAL OR IMAGINED...WITH TOPOGRAPHY HAVING A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE NEAR LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAINTAIN ENOUGH RIDGING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE STAN...OR AT LEAST ITS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...INLAND INTO MEXICO. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SLOWS OR STALLS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HOWEVER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS STAN APPROACHES THE COAST COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS NOT FORECAST FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. THIS IS THE REASON FOR ISSUING THE HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.4N 92.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.2N 93.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 94.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 19.8N 95.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 96.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
