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| #49783 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 03.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005 ALTHOUGH THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS...WERE ONLY 41 KT...DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 50 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. STAN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP COLD CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL NOW TAKING STAN UP TO 92 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WIND FIELDS FROM GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME DECOUPLING OF THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS I WOULD EXPECT SOME LAST MINUTE WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER. EARLIER IN THE DAY STAN MOVED LITTLE...WITH THE CENTER LAGGING PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/6. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF STAN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BRACKETED BY THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...WHICH TAKE STAN WESTWARD TO A LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE GFDL...WHICH TAKES STAN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.0N 92.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.7N 93.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 19.4N 94.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 19.2N 95.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 19.1N 95.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
