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| #49819 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 03.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005 THERE HAS BEEN NO AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF STAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE NEXT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR AROUND 0500Z. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER BUT NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICAL RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SHOWS A 49 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION... DEFINED AS AN INCREASE OF 25 KT OVER 24 HOURS. MY OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION BEYOND 36 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. WITHOUT THE AIRCRAFT...THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER STAN ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF COULD COMPLICATE THE STEERING PATTERN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT STAN COULD BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION DRAGGED EASTWARD INTO THE ABOVEMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND SOME...E.G. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND NOGAPS...DO NOT A LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 19.9N 93.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.7N 94.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 19.4N 94.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 95.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 96.0W 85 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
