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| #49830 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:28 AM 04.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR STAN. THE TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF STAN TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE STAN WILL REACH THE COAST EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... REQUIRING AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING EASTWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY FALLING CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FOR POINTS OFFSHORE OR NEAR THE COAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0600Z 19.3N 94.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.0N 94.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.9N 94.9W 80 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.7N 95.2W 90 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
