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| #49903 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 04.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE CENTER POSTITION IS UNCERTAIN...BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 10Z...STAN SHOULD BE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER INLAND...BUT SINCE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THE TERRAIN OF MEXICO...I PREFER TO STAY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION FOR THE SURFACE CENTER. CONTINUITY OF THIS TRACK...WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA NEAR 10Z INDICATED AN INTENSITY OF 70 KT. WHILE THERE WAS A BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION SINCE THEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL ON THEIR LAST PAST. BALANCING THESE FACTORS LEADS ME TO HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 70 KT. A RAPID DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO. STAN POSES A VERY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES ARE VERY LIKELY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 18.6N 95.1W 70 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 95.7W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 96.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
