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| #49964 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 04.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 STAN CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/5...AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHERE SOME REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 17.8N 95.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.3N 96.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
