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| #50060 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 05.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN HAS BECOME VERY ILL-DEFINED. THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM IS LOSING CHARACTERISTICS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING OVER VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... AND THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER EXIST LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMAINING VORTICITY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO REGENERATION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS... AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH STAN IS DISSIPATING AND HAS LOST ALL CORE CONVECTION... SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY... THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.9N 97.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 05/1800Z 16.7N 97.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
