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| #50206 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 05.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TAMMY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE DATA SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT. THE CREW MADE VISUAL ESTIMATES OF 50 TO 55 KT IN A FEW SPOTS SO THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE COULD BE A SHADE LOW. SINCE THE CENTER IS ONLY A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. THE CENTER MAKE A JAB AT THE COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING BUT THEN RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. TAMMY REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 30.1N 81.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 31.4N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.2N 83.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
