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| #5040 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 AM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TD FIVE LOOKS VERY GOOD BUT THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT 2.0 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KTS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... OTHER THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR MAKING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 280/18. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONCENSUS. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 9.8N 49.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 10.7N 52.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 12.0N 56.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 13.6N 59.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 14.8N 63.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 16.7N 71.1W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 18.6N 76.9W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 20.0N 81.4W 80 KT |
