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| #5086 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 DANIELLE IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE NOW A CONSENSUS 3.0 FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT ACCORDINGLY. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY REASONABLY WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER A TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER IN THE VICINITY OF 18N MAY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 280/12. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODEL SUITE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.3N 27.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 29.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 31.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.6N 33.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 16.9N 35.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 39.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 22.0N 42.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 25.5N 45.0W 65 KT |
