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| #5090 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. HOWEVER DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER...285/20. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT IS LARGELY AN UPDATE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 10.4N 52.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.5N 55.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 12.9N 58.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 14.2N 62.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 73.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 19.0N 79.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.5N 84.0W 80 KT |
