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| #50913 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 09.Oct.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A 07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE. SINCE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM YESTERDAY. VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.0N 19.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 34.7N 18.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 36.3N 16.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 39.1N 13.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT |
