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| #51063 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 10.Oct.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005 THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BLOWN NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST. SOME NEW CONVECTION HAS RESUMED ON THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER... BUT VINCE IS CLEARLY ON A FAST DECLINE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... MORE IN LINE WITH THE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS THAN THE MUCH HIGHER CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES... DUE TO THE GREATLY DIMINISHED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO THE SHEAR... VINCE IS OVER SSTS NEAR 22C... SO IT WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ROUGHLY 12 HOURS. VINCE IS MOVING QUICKLY ON A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST... 080 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT... WHICH IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BY THE APPROACHING FRONT UNTIL THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 34.9N 14.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 36.4N 11.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED |
