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| #512053 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 20.May.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 THE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED THIS MORNING...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY AROUND 35 KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR NOW. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE. ALBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST THREE STRIKES AGAINST ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION. FIRST...DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ARE ROUGHLY 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY INGESTING SOME OF THIS DRY AIR. SECOND...THE CENTER IS MOVING WEST OF THE GULF STREAM OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/ GEORGIA COAST. AND THIRD...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE KEEPS ALBERTO AT LOW-END TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING ON THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION. A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS CAUSED ALBERTO TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS 250/5 KT. THE BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE CLUSTER OF OTHER MODELS AND SHOWS A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE A LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON DAYS 3 AND 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 31.5N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 31.2N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 31.4N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 32.3N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 34.2N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1200Z 39.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH |
