Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #512180 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 20.May.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ALBERTO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT ON THE JACKSONVILLE DOPPLER RADAR. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND DOPPLER WIND DATA SUGGEST THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO ALBERTO MOVING OVER WARM WATERS ALONG THE GULF STREAM...BUT IN A MODERATE-TO- STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM LOSES ALL DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. ALBERTO HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING 180/4. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A PECULIAR PLACE WITHIN THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ALBERTO MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 30.5N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 30.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.5N 77.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 33.2N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 35.5N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 39.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
