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| #513498 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 26.May.2012) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPOSED ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER... SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION REMAIN SUBTROPICAL 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 40 KT. BERYL IS STILL ENTANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITH SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK OVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. OVERNIGHT THE CENTER OF BERYL HAS SLOWED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/04. AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE WEEKEND...BERYL SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND TURN WESTWARD AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE NEW TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND BERYL WILL MOVE AND HOW QUICKLY IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH BERYL WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND...AS A SHALLOWER WEAKER CYCLONE WILL NOT BE PICKED UP AS QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...MORE WEAKENING...AND ARE SLOWEST WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF DOES NOT MOVE BERYL AS FAR INLAND...MAINTAINS A DEEPER CYCLONE...AND ACCELERATES IT NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 0226 UTC ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 32.3N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 31.8N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 31.0N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 30.6N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 30.6N 81.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 31/0600Z 34.5N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
