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| #513718 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 26.May.2012) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL THIS AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE STORM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 40-45 KT FROM THE SFMR. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. STRUCTURALLY...THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS TRANSIENT BANDS OF CONVECTION FORM NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A LITTLE FASTER. BERYL IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS TO ITS NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 H...AND THEN WEAKEN IT AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BETWEEN 24-36 H. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STALL AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER... THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHERE AND WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE EASTERNMOST ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 H...BUT REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN DEFERENCE TO THE USUALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF. AFTER RECURVATURE...THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR BERYL IS BECOMING MORE MOIST...AND THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO THE TRANSITION OF BERYL INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PROCESS. BERYL SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER LAND. AFTER RECURVATURE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BERYL SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE LGEM MODEL. THE ANALYZED AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 30.8N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 30.4N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 30.2N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL 36H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0000Z 30.7N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0000Z 35.0N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 01/0000Z 39.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
